As of 9 October, the news backdrop gives FGBL two competing forces: safe-haven demand driven by French budget risks, and pressure from persistent inflation and high global yields. The Bund’s morning gains confirm short-term support, but do not, on their own, prove a reversal of the medium-term trend.
The key question for the next session: will the yield on German ten-year bonds continue to fall as energy risks ease, or will oil and expectations of further ECB policy tightening start pushing yields higher again? This distinction will help separate a sustained FGBL trend from a short-lived rebound.
An important volume level is Volume Area 120.45 – 120.85. The price has now established itself above this range, but the Open Interest indicator shows that traders are partially closing their positions.
Near the lower DEV 2 band of the VWAP indicator, buyer activity reached its peak for the current contract. Note the volume support levels at 119.8 – 120 and the price of 119.5.
The volume resistance range is 121.55 – 121.75.
